GUINEA’S RETURN TO DEMOCRACY; NAVIGATING TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES

BACKGROUND

The Republic of Guinea was formerly known as French Guinea, the People’s Revolutionary Republic of Guinea in 1978 but was later renamed the Republic of Guinea in 1984 after the death of Ahmed Sékou Touré, the first President.

Guinea was a part of French West Africa until 1958 when it gained independence. The country is the source of three of West Africa’s great rivers namely, the Gambia, Niger, and Sénégal. It is bordered by Guinea-Bissau to the northwest, Senegal to the north, Mali to the northeast, Cote d’Ivoire to the southeast, Sierra Leone and Liberia to the south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west.

Guinea is home to 14 million people and spans 245,857 square kilometers. The name Guinea is directly derived from the Portuguese word Guiné which was used to describe the regions inhabited by the Guinea, a term used to refer to Africans who were then living south of the Senegal River.

CULTURE AND RELIGIOUS HERITAGE

Guinea has a rich history with a diverse cultural heritage and unique linguistic variances. The majority of Guineans follow Islamic doctrines; almost four-fifths, are Sunni Muslims with the remaining 10% of the population being Catholics.

The major ethnic groups in the country include Peuhl or Fula (in the Fouta Djalon region), the Maninka (in the forests and savannahs of Upper Guinea), Susus (in Conakry), and smaller groups; Kissis, Toma, Kpelle, and Gerzé (in the forest coastal areas).

One of the most important facets of Guinean culture is music. Guinean musicians perform on a variety of string and percussion instruments, such as the guitar, ngoni, balafon, and kora, a lute and harp hybrid.

ECONOMY

Guinea’s economy hinges predominantly on agriculture and mineral resources such as gold, diamonds, iron ore, bauxite, and uranium.

Guinea was the world’s largest exporter of aluminum ore in 2021 exporting about $5.5B and a $4.3B trade surplus. As of 2019, the nation ranked third globally in terms of bauxite production. About 80% of Guinea’s foreign exchange comes from the production of alumina and bauxite mining.

Large-scale mining and export of gold and diamond generate more foreign exchange, however, Guinea’s economy is extensively aided by the World Bank, the IMF, and other bilateral donor countries, notably the United States.

POLITICAL AND DEMOCRATIC ENVIRONMENT

Guinea’s political and democratic landscape has since its independence been characterized by both advancements and obstacles.

After Guinea gained independence from France in 1958, Ahmed Sékou Touré became its President and countries such as Ghana, Liberia, United Arab Republic, China and the United States recognized the nation diplomatically. With a constitution in place, Guinea joined the UN in December, 1958. Touré was re-elected in 1961 and 1968. However, political unrest such as a coup and assassination attempt in 1969 led to expulsions and executions which included some government officials.

In November 1970, 400 Guinean exiles and Portuguese-African mercenaries led by Portuguese officers attacked Conakry, targeting President Ahmed Sékou Touré’s residence, military sites, and the headquarters of PAIGC. Many were arrested, with dozens executed, including prominent figures, sparking international outrage.

From 1971 to 1978, the Soviet Union aided Guinea with naval patrols and technical personnel. Prime Minister Louis Lansana Beavogui was appointed by President Ahmed Sékou Touré in April 1972. In the 1974 elections, the PDG-RDA won all 150 National Assembly seats, and Touré was re-elected unopposed. Guinea resumed diplomatic ties with France in July 1975. The 1980 elections saw the PDG-RDA win all 210 seats. Touré was re-elected in 1982 but died during surgery in the US in 1984 and Beavogui became interim president.

President Lansana Conté’s death in December 2008 led to a military coup by Captain Moïse Dadis Camara, prompting international condemnation and sanctions, resulting in numerous casualties.

Despite protests and political unrest, Alpha Condé was elected president in 2010 and re-elected in 2015 amid allegations of fraud. His third term bid in 2020 sparked widespread protests, culminating in a military coup led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya in September 2021. The junta faced diplomatic sanctions but promised a transitional period towards civilian rule, appointing interim leaders. Former President Alpha Condé was released from house arrest in April 2022.

The country had its presidential election in 2020, and President Alpha Condé, the current leader, won a contentious third term in office. Allegations of violence and irregularities plagued the election, drawing harsh criticism from opposition parties and foreign observers. Protesters across expressed their concerns about Condé’s prolonged-term and the deterioration of democratic norms following his triumph. Critiques of the government’s handling of these protests centered on allegations of violations of human rights and repression of dissent.

Guinea’s political landscape is defined by a history of authoritarian governance and little political pluralism. While substantial progress has been made toward democratization in recent years, including the holding of regular elections, issues such as corruption, lack of transparency and unequal access to political involvement remain.

Return to Democratic Rule and Future Prospects

Following the coup in 2022, Guinea experienced a period of political uncertainty and transition. The coup led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya resulted in the removal of President Alpha Condé from power and the establishment of a military junta. In the aftermath of the coup, the junta pledged to oversee a transitional period towards civilian rule and promised to hold free and fair elections to restore democracy.

Despite initial concerns about the junta’s commitment to democracy, Guinea embarked on a process of political reform and reconciliation. The junta-appointed interim leaders to oversee the transitional period and initiated consultations with various political stakeholders to chart the country’s path forward.

In recent years, Guinea’s relationship with the Wagner Group and by extension Russia, represents a departure from its traditional alliances, particularly France and the ECOWAS, and has drawn criticism from many Western nations. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has taken steps to engage in dialogue with the military regimes of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, despite their intentions to leave the organization. This move seems significant given the geopolitical dynamics, particularly the shift towards closer ties with Russia and away from France. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States indicates a regional realignment, which could have implications for diplomatic relations and regional stability in West Africa.

As Guinea navigates its transition, challenges such as political polarization, institutional reform, and the restoration of public trust in governance remain significant. The success of the transition hinges on the junta’s ability to uphold democratic principles, engage in inclusive dialogue, and pave the way for credible elections. The future of democracy in Guinea depends on the collective efforts of its leaders, civil society, and the international community to uphold democratic values, promote transparency, and ensure the full participation of all citizens in the political process.

Economically, Guinea looks to Russia for investment, particularly in its mineral-rich sectors like mining. This is particularly evident in the mining sector, where Russian companies have shown interest in Guinea’s abundant mineral resources, such as bauxite and uranium. Collaborative ventures in mining and security cooperations could potentially bolster Guinea’s economy, security and infrastructure development.

However, the full implications of this shift remain uncertain, dependent on geopolitical dynamics and domestic factors.

As part of a 10-point transition plan negotiated with ECOWAS, the Guinean junta has pledged to hold presidential and legislative elections by December 2024. While this engagement with ECOWAS distinguishes it from other military coups in the region, concerns have been raised over the lack of transparency, timeliness, and budgetary provisions for the transition process.

Despite the junta’s commitment to the transition, doubts linger among civilian leaders regarding the sincerity of their intentions, leading to questions about whether they are stalling the return to democratic rule. Controversies surround the junta’s proposal to conduct a census ahead of the elections to establish a new voter registry, as well as plans for a constitutional referendum in 2024, details of which are yet to be disclosed.

Additionally, potential Russian interference looms due to their vested interests in Guinea’s bauxite mining industry, support for the previous regime, influence over other Sahelian military governments, and broader efforts to undermine democracy in Africa.

Despite challenges and setbacks, including allegations of fraud and human rights abuses, these developments signify a gradual transition towards a more inclusive and representative political system, although significant hurdles remain.