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On May 14, 2025, Colonel Assimi Goïta and Mali’s military government officially dissolved all political parties, bringing an abrupt end to any remaining hope of a transition to civilian rule. What was initially presented as a temporary intervention aimed at stabilizing the country has instead evolved into a prolonged period of military control. The promise of restoring democratic governance has faded, and Mali now faces a deepening political and economic crisis. The future of democracy in the country remains uncertain, with growing concerns about long-term stability and the erosion of civic freedoms.
The roots of the current crisis lie in the dual coups of 2020 and 2021, driven by widespread public frustration with corrupt civilian governments that failed to address insecurity, poverty and systemic dysfunction. Many Malians, disillusioned with the old political elite, initially welcomed the military’s takeover, hoping it would usher in a period of reform and renewal. Instead of honoring its commitment to reform, the military capitalized on the initial public support to entrench its authority, delaying elections, suppressing dissent, and sidelining political opposition, ultimately dismantling the very democratic principles it had pledged to uphold.
Colonel Goïta and his associates pledged to hold elections by February 2022 and lead a transitional process. However, these elections did not occur. Instead, the junta repeatedly broke its commitments, implemented repressive measures, and controlled public discourse through opaque and exclusionary “national dialogues.” Election delays, justified by claims of insecurity and logistical issues, increasingly appeared to serve a deliberate strategy to prolong military rule.
Regional bodies such as ECOWAS and the African Union initially responded to Mali’s political crisis with sanctions and diplomatic pressure, urging a swift return to constitutional order. By 2022 and 2023, some progress appeared possible, with transitional agreements and revised electoral timelines. However, these efforts faltered due to weak enforcement mechanisms and a premature easing of sanctions. As international focus waned, the junta consolidated its grip on power without fulfilling its obligations. Mali’s growing isolation from regional partners has further strained cooperation, especially in addressing shared security threats across the Sahel. With trust eroded and coordinated efforts weakened, both democratic recovery and regional stability have become more difficult to achieve.
The abductions of opposition figures, the suspension of political activity, and the violent suppression of protests signal a regime growing increasingly intolerant of dissent and focused on consolidating power at all costs. Meanwhile, Mali’s economy suffers from persistent instability, with key sectors such as agriculture, mining, and trade facing severe disruptions. As a result, growth has slowed, inflation and unemployment are rising, and foreign investment and aid have dwindled, further exacerbating the nation’s economic challenges.
The consequences of prolonged military rule in Mali are profound. The country faces escalating international isolation, economic decline, and a deepening legitimacy crisis. Domestically, the repression of political opposition and civil society risks destabilizing the social fabric and heightening internal tensions. More alarmingly, amid global declines in democracy, Mali’s continued slide toward authoritarianism threatens to normalize such governance for future generations. Each passing year without democracy entrenches these undemocratic practices, making the prospect of a democratic return increasingly difficult.
Despite growing restrictions on civic space, the demonstrations held in Bamako on May 3rd and 4th underscore the resilience of Mali’s population and their continued demand for democratic governance. Citizens from various segments of society took to the streets, calling not only for a return to multi-party democracy but also for greater accountability and political reform. This public mobilization reflects a growing recognition among Malians that returning to the flawed democratic systems of the past, marked by corruption, weak institutions, and limited public participation, will not resolve the country’s deeper governance problems. There is instead a clear and growing demand for a reimagined political order that prioritizes transparency, inclusion, and public accountability.
To support this process, regional and international actors must play a more active and strategic role. ECOWAS, the African Union, and international partners must re-engage with a unified approach that includes the reintroduction of targeted sanctions, conditional diplomatic engagement, and a clear set of measurable indicators for progress toward democratic transition. A firmer and more coordinated stance is needed to create meaningful leverage. Prior efforts failed in part due to premature trust in the junta’s promises and inconsistent enforcement commitments
Ultimately, the drive for democratic renewal must be rooted in Malian society. Civil society organizations, youth and women’s movements, traditional and religious leaders, and members of the diaspora must be central to this process. Their involvement will be critical in articulating a shared vision for governance, monitoring political developments, and sustaining pressure for reform through nonviolent and coordinated advocacy.
The way forward is challenging, but Mali’s long-term stability and development rely on building a democratic system that is legitimate, inclusive, and accountable. Without timely and coordinated action from both domestic and international actors, authoritarian rule may become more deeply entrenched, weakening democratic governance, security and public confidence even further.